Chemical futures skyrocketing methanol PVC daily limit

October 31, the news, the commodities rose sharply in the morning, chemical industry plate rose collective ***, methanol, PVC rose by the limit of 5%, PP rose by 4.86%, plastics rose by 3.54%, breaking the 10000 yuan mark, PTA, asphalt is still weak. Black collective surge, coke rose more than 4%, hit a new high, iron ore close to 500 yuan mark, non-ferrous metals overall strong, zinc, aluminum surge. Meidou fell sharply on Friday, led by soybean meal and rapeseed, down 1.55 percent and 1.37 percent, respectively.

Methanol will maintain a strong trend of shock

In the domestic market, according to incomplete sample statistics of Longzhong Petrochemical network, the overall social inventory of methanol in China is 549,400 tons, which is 27,900 tons less than last week. Most regions are in short supply and the inventory is reduced. At present, the inventory of methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and South China) continues to decline to 875,500 tons, and the overall circulating supply continues to shrink to around 22,200 tons. In addition, after October 1st, 15 sets of methanol units in China have been undergoing maintenance. This week, 7 sets of units undergoing maintenance have not been restored, so the market supply is tight in the short term. In addition, the state introduced policies to regulate the load capacity of vehicles, which promoted the rise of methanol cost and further restricted the supply of methanol.

In the port market, according to incomplete statistics of Longzhong Information, from October 21 to 30, the import cargo volume of East China port area was about 809.6 million tons. The port in South China is affected by the CNOOC port incident, which leads to the delay of the arrival of the ship. Due to the typhoon, the arrival of late cargo port or partial delay. In addition, in terms of outer disc price, CFR Southeast Asia continues to be higher than CFR China, and outer disc goods are more inclined to flow into Southeast Asia. Because of this, methanol import volume in October decreased significantly compared with September, and it is estimated that the import volume is about 650,000 tons, and the impact of imported goods on port supply is significantly reduced. Port inventories are declining in a destocking trend, but it is important to note that although port inventories have declined, they are still high. For the fundamentals of methanol, Li Qiang Huang of Jinshi Futures believes that although there is a possibility of periodic shortage at the supply end, the overall supply is safe; Although there are 4 sets of coal-to-olefin units put into production at the demand end, two of them do not produce methanol outside, and the traditional demand performance is not good, so the methanol jump after the National Day does not mean the improvement of the fundamentals.

Huishang Futures Zhao Shixia believes that the overall fundamentals of methanol in October are good. Due to the expectation that the recent arrival volume is still low, methanol is expected to maintain a strong trend of shock. But a crisis lurks in the rally, driven by environmental concerns and expectations of new installations coming on stream later. The Notice on Monitoring the Implementation of the Key Work of Environmental Law Enforcement Supervision states that 20 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government), including Hebei, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi and Shandong, will be supervised from October 21, 2016. As a large chemical production province in northern China, Shandong will be more affected by this environmental protection inspection on fine chemicals in the northern and central markets and methanol enterprises in the south. At present, there is insufficient follow-up of downstream olefin demand in Shandong, and the impact of the fermentation of environmental protection inspection in the later stage on the reduction of methanol industry chain demand still needs to be closely observed.

Plastic approaching before high attention to import trends

From the seasonal point of view, October is still the peak season of rigid demand, whether it is packaging film or agricultural film are rising. As of October 28, the opening rate of agricultural film and packaging film has rebounded to 70% and 53%, while the demand is not affected by the sharp rise in prices. The second is the demand for arbitrage. Influenced by the continuous spot premium of L1701, traders' demand for arbitrage continues to be released, and upstream supplies continue to transfer into the hands of middlemen, which further accelerates the destocking of rock, and this part of supplies will not return to the market for the time being, exacerbating the tight supply situation in the periodic market. The next step is the substitute demand, mainly LLDPE replacement of LDPE. Affected by the shortage of LDPE supply, LDPE price in China has been rising to around 12000 yuan/ton recently, far higher than the price of LLDPE. At present, it is the peak season of production and consumption of shed film, and a certain amount of LDPE is in the formula of shed film. The high price of LDPE forces agricultural film enterprises to gradually change the raw material formula, thus increasing the demand for LLDPE.

The domestic stock supply of plastic has reached the maximum, but due to the impact of national environmental protection policies, the supply is still expected to pick up is relatively low, so to change the situation of domestic inventory repeatedly low, can only rely on domestic price rise, attract external sources of goods into the country, in order to calm the current rise.

Coke short-term bargain to do long

Last week black variety futures continued strong, coke prices continue to lead the rise. Last week, the start of coking enterprises continued to rise, affected by the weather, transportation and other problems, North China, Northwest and other places coke enterprises to carry out poor situation, coke inventory increased; Downstream steel inventory is still at a low level, replenishment just need to purchase enthusiasm, short-term continue to support coke prices; Steel mill profit due to coke price rise is further compressed, individual steel mills even because of the shortage of coke resources, high price problems put forward temporary maintenance, coke rising power weakened, coke price is expected to rise in the short term. The operation of coking coal, coke on the low do more.